JPL Says Forget la-nina oscillation rules as the pacific cools
The climate establishment is now starting to catch up with me:
WattsUpWithThat.com : –
I had a chat with solar expert Leif Svalgaard a while back and eventually he accepted a solar influence of perhaps 10% of the observed warming over the 30 years from 1970 to 2000.
Personally I think that on the low side in the light of historical reports linking cold spells to colder temps but I can live with 10% because of the oceanic potential for amplifying or cancelling solar changes.
Leif did accept that an amplifying factor such as variable oceanic input might fit the bill.
If one accepts that the oceanic effect could produce an average multiplier of 5 times up or 5 times down then there you have a solar contribution of only 10% as adequate to explain all observed changes without involving CO2.
In practice the power of the oceans is such that amplification could be more than 5 times up or down when all the oceanic oscillations are in line with solar changes which is just what we had from 1970 to 2000.
At present we have a declining solar input, the PDO has gone negative and the other oceans are slowly swinging into line.
Those changes are reflected in the equatorward movement of the jet streams and increasing dominance of poleward high pressure cells.
My view is that the weather patterns respond to changes in global heat balance and do NOT drive them. The balance goes positive or negative and the weather patterns FOLLOW. That is the opposite of the general view.
Once the new weather patterns have been in place for a while then the climate has changed until another shift in the global heat balance occurs.
Those changes occur as a result of the net combination of solar and oceanic influences with negligible input from CO2.
Natural swings in the power of the greenhouse effect occur all the time as total global humidity changes. Those natural swings are magnitudes greater than anything that could be caused by human CO2 yet no tipping point has ever been crossed as a result of increased humidity alone. There are too many infinitely variable negative feedbacks to allow it.Published by Stephen Wilde December 11, 2008